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November 3, 2022

October 2022 Report: San Francisco House Market

2950 Pacific Exterior

October is typically the month that spells out how the Fall market is doing. What we saw last month were year-over-year price and volume drops for single-family homes. But all is not lost. I mean, buyers are still overbidding for properties, which isn’t what I would’ve expected.

Here’s the latest on how the house market did in October:

Median price was up from September, down year-over-year: We saw a median house price of $1.7M last month, up slightly from September’s $1,650,000 median—but down from $1,810,000 in October 2021.

Volume check: October’s 179 homes sold were in line with the 172 sold in September. But we’re still at much lower volumes from the 305 houses sold in October 2021.

Overbidding is still happening, believe it or not: 27 homes closed for 20% or more over list price, with a bulk of that activity happening in the Outer Parkside and Outer Sunset. Of course, when you list your house at $995,000, those kind of hijinks ensue. The citywide average overbid was only 4.33%, and 51 single-family homes closed for under asking. Prize for top overbid goes to 134 26th Avenue, a small Sea Cliff house listed for $1,499,000 that sold for $2.3M in an all-cash transaction.

Big Gold Coast sale in October: First listed in March 2021 for $29,500,000, the Dutch Colonial house at 2950 Pacific closed in October for $17M. The property comes with conceptual architectural plans for a modernized home that will move the front door position to 2895 Broadway. If the LLC that bought the property last month gets the plans approved, the next owner will have a Billionaire’s Row address.  (Photo courtesy Compass)

Current mood: Buyers are anxious about stock market losses and those higher interest rates. Sellers are looking at comparable sales from the past six months and valuing their homes accordingly. But many buyers literally can’t afford what sellers want because those comps are from the spring and summer when interest rates were lower.

What’s on tap for the rest of 2022: Inventory usually slows down around Thanksgiving as the holidays take hold. I think there will be an extra slow pace through the end of the year, with many homeowners realizing that now is not the most favorable time to list their properties.

Pro Tips
If you have a house to sell that’s worth more than $3M, you have some competition among the almost 100 homes in this range that have been on the market for 30 days or more. Look to make a deal before the holidays further whittle down your buyer pool.

Buyers: You have some choices among the 400+ houses on the market. But when it comes down to amenity and location needs, there may be only a handful of current options.  Make sure your preapproval is up to date with current interest rates, and look to negotiate on properties that have been on the market for three or more weeks. (Hint: Sellers probably need more than two weeks to discount their price significantly.)

[All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service.]

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