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November 7, 2022

October 2022 Report: San Francisco Condo Market

2210 Vallego living room

With plenty of inventory and comparatively minimal closed sales, October wasn’t exactly a model month for the San Francisco condo market. Buyers grappled with stock losses and higher interest rates, and there was a general sense of unease about where things are heading. Here’s what went down:

Median condo price was stable: October posted a $1.2M median price, down from October 2021’s $1,249,000 median but up slightly from September’s $1,170,000.

Volume check: September (176 sold) and October (179 sold) were pretty similar in volume, though that pales in comparison to October 2021’s 316 closed sales.

Drill down: Here’s a quick look at the most popular condo categories:

1BRs | 43 sold | $771,054 avge price
It’s taking an average of 48 days to sell a one-bedroom condo.

2BRs | 86 sold | $1,305,435
Two-bedrooms are selling in an average of 42 days. That’s long for this type of condo, which has traditionally gone in contract in a week or two.

3BRs | 35 sold | $1,762,800
The three-bedroom units that closed in October were on the market an average of 31 days, suggesting that buyers in this range aren’t in any hurry to write an offer

Most condos are selling for under or at their list prices: A whopping 78% of one bedrooms, 60% of two bedrooms and 57% of three bedrooms closed for at or under asking in October.

Luxury condos aren’t dead yet: 25 condos sold for $2M or more in October. The most expensive home sold was Pacific Heights’ renovated four-bedroom, 3075-square foot condo at 2210 Vallejo. Changing hands for $4,995,000, the renovated unit on a double-width lot had an elevator and views of the Bay, Golden Gate Bridge and Alcatraz. (Photo courtesy Compass)

But urban living is barely treading water: Large buildings in the FiDi, downtown, South Beach, SoMa, Yerba Buena and Mission Bay typically take a hit when the market is softer. That was definitely the case in October as only 41 sales closed—a paltry number,  given that there are 345+ condos currently on the market in these areas. It also took an average of 58 days for those sales to go into contract. There are approximately only 40 condos in these neighborhoods in contract, so it’s going to take a while for buyers to absorb current inventory.

Current mood: Buyers are torn between pulling the trigger on what they can afford, and waiting to see if prices decline further. Sellers are learning that patience and perseverance are the two qualities they need to have if they expect to successfully close a sale.

What’s on tap for the rest of 2022: With 825+ condos currently on the market, the name of the game between now and the end of the year will be selling off as much of that inventory as possible. However, the slower market will probably find a good portion of these condos temporarily withdrawn and relisted in 2023.

Pro Tips:
Recognize that your condo may be worth less than the comps from the past three- to six months. If you can make a deal with a qualified buyer now, that will be your best bet.

Buyers: Take advantage of this lull in the market and purchase what you can afford. You might actually end up with a bigger or better place than originally expected.

[All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service]

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