The San Francisco single-family home market wrapped up 2024 with a surprising surge, both in sales and median price. There are also some tales to tell about out-of-this-world overbids in the luxury market, along with a look at the most expensive sale of the last quarter.
Here’s how things unfolded in Q4 2024:
Sales and median price were up YOY: There was positive movement on the sales and median price fronts. A total of 563 homes changed hands, with a median price of $1.6M, marking a 12.5% increase in sales volume and a 4% rise in median price. This shows that despite the interest rate shifts, buyers are still eager to invest in San Francisco real estate, which is a strong sign for the market moving forward.
The sweet spot for buyers: Homes priced under $2M were hits with buyers, as 70% of sales fell into this range. If you’re looking to list a home around the $1.5M price point, now’s the time to seize the opportunity. There’s strong demand in this price category and homes are selling.
Overbidding was the norm: Buyers under $2M are also showing a strong tendency to overbid. In fact, most homes in this price range sold for more than the asking price. This trend is particularly common on the west and southeast parts of the city, where first-time homebuyers and those moving up from their owned condos are often competing. If you’re selling in these areas, overbids are something you can probably expect.
Cash sales weren’t all that common: Though 17.5% of buyers paid cash for a house in the last quarter, that’s actually down from the 25% that I was typically seeing over the past few years. This is a sign that buyers are doing what they can to qualify for loans and work with current interest rates.
Luxury buyers were in the minority: Although luxury buyers made up less than 10% of sales in Q4, there were still some notable deals. One standout was the four-level home at 361 Upper Terrace (4BR/3.5BA, 3,335 sq ft) in Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights that last sold for $3.5M in 2021. This time around, the list price was $3.5M and closed for 33% over asking at $4,250,000. And let’s not overlook Eureka Valley’s 486 Sanchez (4BR/3.5BA, 3,60 sq ft). Thoroughly renovated in 2019, this home’s facade was the only thing Victorian about the property. Its “Space Administration LLC” buyer paid $4.8M in all cash—20% over the $3,995,000 list price.
A major sale on Russian Hill: A trophy property made headlines in Q4: 825 Francisco, an 8,440-square-foot estate with breathtaking views of the Golden Gate Bridge to Coit Tower. After 38 years in the same family, the home sold for a staggering $20.26M, and the LLC buyer also acquired the adjacent vacant lot. It will be interesting to see how this property evolves in the future, with speculation that the lot will play a role in a development project. (Photo courtesy Sotheby’s International Realty)
2024 closed with an impressive finish, and I’m expecting that San Francisco single-family home market will offer opportunities in the coming year for both buyers and sellers in various price ranges.