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January 10, 2024

SF House Market Report: Q4 2023

642 30th Ave

The single-family home market settled down in Q4 2023, and we finished the year at respectable volume and median price levels. I was pleased to see that market activity for the last quarters of 2022 and 2023 were very similar—a big difference from the monthly year-over-year declines I was seeing throughout 2023.

Here’s what went down during the last quarter of 2023:

Volume was decent. 496 single-family homes sold, not a big difference from the 515 homes that closed in Q4 2022. (For reference, 707 houses sold in pre-pandemic Q4 2019.)

Median price was also solid. The $1,550,000 Q4 2023 median price was not significantly lower than the $1,563,850 median in Q4 2022. Interestingly, both of these quarters bested Q4 2019’s median price of $1,510,000.

Overbids happened, but there was a fair amount of underbidding. 31% of houses closed for under list price, and 14% sold for 20% or more over the list price. There was an average citywide overbid of three percent. The biggest overbid was at 642 30th Avenue, an 1,800 square foot Central Richmond cosmetic fixer on a 3,000 square foot lot. The sale followed the not entirely unexpected outcome for a home priced well below value. In this case, list price was $1.1M and the winning bid was $1,750,000—60% over asking.  (Photo above courtesy KW Advisors)

The luxury market made a good showing. Though the north end of town saw a considerable number of multi-million dollar homes close for under their original list prices, buyers snapped up 41 homes for $4M or more, compared to only 32 in Q4 2022. The most expensive home sold in the last quarter was 23 Presidio, a classic Edwardian located in the exclusive enclave known as Presidio Terrace. The seven-bedroom home spanned 9,504 square feet and was situated on a 7,426 square foot lot. Originally listed for $17.9M, the sale closed in October for $16,300,000.

Inventory check. There are 132 homes on the market at an average list price of $3.1M. 100 of these homes have been on the market for 30+ days at an average list price of $3.5M. 71 homes are in contract with an average list price of $2.1M. (It’s easy to see where the sweet spot is for single-family homes at the moment.)

Pro Tips:

Sellers: If you’re ready to sell your home, get going—especially if your property is worth $2M or less. There’s not much inventory and interest rates are at more palatable levels.

Buyers: Best not to sit around for the next few months worrying about the best time to purchase a home. If you’re qualified under current interest rates and can swing it, make a move while the real estate market is at its stable levels. You can refinance if rates go down.

[All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service.]

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