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November 6, 2023

SF House Market Report: October 2023

540 El Camino Del Mar

We’ve had a little of everything so far this fall. Crazy overbids, properties sitting on the market, insurance drama, fluctuating interest rates. What I’m seeing right now are some folks hell bent on purchasing a home before the end of the year, while others are postponing plans to invest until interest rates drop. Inventory is still low because homeowners who don’t have to sell aren’t doing so. So we’re still seeing multiple offers on houses—just not as many as there may have been two years ago.

Here’s what went down in October:

Volume and median price: Perhaps we’re flatlining as far as declines in volume and price go. For the first time in a while, the year-over-year (YOY) volume and median price weren’t very different. We saw 189 sales last month vs. 187 in October 2022, and the median prices were also similar—$1,650,000 (2023) and $1,665,000 (2022).

There were frequent, hefty overbids: 31 homes sold for 20% or more in October, but the citywide overbid average was only 5.27%. The 20%+ overbids were clustered in the Outer/Central Sunset, Central Richmond, and scattered among District 4 (Westwood Park, Forest Hill Extension, Diamond Heights), as well as District 5 (Eureka/Noe Valleys, Glen Park and Duboce Triangle).

There’s always one eye-popper in the mix. 221 Clipper, a remodeled 3BR/2BA, 2,254-square foot Victorian in Noe Valley was listed for $2,450,000 and closed for $3,450,000. A million over asking. And yes, it was all cash.

Luxury buyers came to life. Sales of homes in the $3M+ range more than doubled over the last month, with 37 houses closing from $3M-$16.3M. And what’s in the water in the gated north-end enclave known as Presidio Terrace? There was a trio of sales there in October: 5 Presidio ($8,750,000), 18 Presidio ($14.3M) and 23 Presidio ($16.3M). This coming from a micro-neighborhood that’s only had seen a dozen sales over the past decade.

October was a big month for celebrity real estate. Julia Roberts’ home at 3530 Washington in Presidio Heights was listed on October 8th for $11,750,000 and closed on October 26th for $11,250,000 in an all-cash transaction. (She and her “Northern Neighbors LLC” did well on that sale, having purchased the home in 2020 for $8.3M when it was listed for $8.8M.) And Robin Williams’ ex-wife moved ahead with the sale of the Williams estate at 540 El Camino Del Mar. The 11,000-square foot home was listed late last month for $25M. I can schedule a showing for you if you can provide proof of funds, because that’s what it will take to confirm an appointment. [Photo courtesy Compass]

Inventory check. There are just over 400 homes on the market at a median price of $1,750,000. With less than 200 homes selling in October, we seriously need to boost the absorption rate if we expect to make a dent in existing inventory before the end of the year.

Some sellers are holding fast to their prices. 240 homes have been on the market for 30 days or more at a median price of $1,850,000. These may be the best bets for buyers to engage with sellers who might want to wrap things up in 2023.

Pro Tips:
Be flexible on price and get your property into contract before Thanksgiving. It’s unlikely a crop of new buyers will emerge in December.

Buyers: Look closely at properties sitting on the market. There might be flexibility in price and you could get more than you hoped for.

[All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service.]

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