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November 8, 2023

SF Condo Market Report: October 2023

Maison Pacific

High interest rates continued to put downward pressure on the condo market in October. We saw year-over-year (YOY) declines in volume and median price, and most units sold for under list price. But never fear, some buyers really went for it when it came to spacious, updated flats in older buildings. And we have a nice new condo development in the north end of town currently selling alongside a raft of units on the resale market.

Here’s October’s progress report:

Volume and median price check. 157 condos sold at a median price of $1,130,800—a 15% YOY volume drop, and a 5.7% decline in the YOY median price.

Price per square foot: $998, down from $1,031 in October 2022.

Drill down: Here’s a quick look at how the most popular condo categories did:

1BRs | 52 sold | $742,500 median price

2BRs | 57 sold | $1,245,088

3BRs | 38 sold | $1,622,500

More than half of all condos sold for under list price. A handful of units changed hands for 20% or more over asking. However, 84 sold for under. The most aggressive overbid was at 3135 24th Street #6 at Folsom in the Mission. The three-level 3BR/3.5BA contemporary condo with 1,878 square feet and three patios closed for 48% over asking. But this one needs some context on a couple fronts: The property was listed back in May for $1,980,000, reduced to $1,782,000 in August and then put on hold. The sellers relisted the unit for a super low, attract-attention price of $1,095,000 and that turned out to be the Hail Mary they needed to land the $1,650,000 price with which they could live. Still, the final sale price was 14.7% less than the $1,935,000 the sellers paid in October 2017.

The luxury condo market is still kind of flat. 21 condos sold for $2M or more in October, with a dozen closing for under asking, eight over and one at asking. But you know there are always the exuberant sales that leave you shaking your head. There were two last month: Cole Valley’s 169 Parnassus (3BR/2BA, 1,848 sq ft) listed for $1,995,000 and sold for $2,45,000 all cash, and 523 Pierce (3BR/1.5BA, 1,700 sq ft) in the Marina that sold for $2.1M—25% over its $1,675,000 list price. Both properties were updated, had nice period detail, parking and were situated in popular neighborhood locations.

There’s a new construction development in town. That would be 1580 Pacific (Maison Pacific) at the corner of Polk and Pacific on the Nob/Russian Hill border. The 53-unit building developed by JS Sullivan features one- and two-bedroom units, some with dens. One bedrooms (700-800 sq ft) are asking $1,100-$1,300/sq ft, with two bedrooms (900-1,100 sq ft) more in the $1,400-$1,500/sq ft range. Amenities include lobby attendant, view rooftop terrace with outdoor seating and grill, plus private patios and parking for select residences. [Photo courtesy JS Sullivan Sales & Marketing, Inc.]

Lots of inventory is still available citywide. There are more than 700 condos for sale at an average list price of $1,533,142 and median of $1,149,000.

Pro Tips:
Make sure your value expectations are in check; many of my colleagues acknowledge that we’re currently closer to 2016 values. If you purchased an updated unit with parking in an amazing location over the past several years and are looking to sell now, you’ll probably do ok. But if your condo doesn’t quite fit that criteria, you might have to settle for less than you paid.

Buyers: Keep an eye on interest rates because they’re fluctuating a bit as of late. You may end up with a better rate than you think. And make sure your preapproval is up to date so you can move quickly if need be.

{All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service]

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