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October 11, 2023

SF Condo Market Report: September 2023

1123 Lincoln Exterior

The San Francisco condo market saw year-over-year (YOY) drops in volume and median price in September, but the luxury market actually came to life. Buyers still have a lot of inventory from which to choose, particularly in some neighborhoods that are overflowing with available units.

Here’s September’s progress report:

Volume check. 138 condos closed, which was a 22% YOY drop.

Median price:  $1,050,000, a 10% decline from last September’s $1,167,500 median.

Days on market (DOM) hasn’t changed much in a year. It took an average of 55 days to get in contract as of last month, an amount of time that was on par with last September’s 57 DOM average.

Price per square foot: $1,014, on par with September 2022’s $1,050/sq ft average.

Drill down: Here’s a quick look at how the most popular condo categories did:

1BRs | 34 sold | $730,000 median price

2BRs | 62 sold | $1,237,500

3BRs | 24 sold | $1,842,500

There were no big overbids in September. The best we could muster was 19% over asking for a 2BR/2BA condo at 1123 Lincoln Way in the Inner Sunset (photo above courtesy Brava Real Estate). That one was listed for $1,195,000 and sold for $1,420,000. Otherwise, condos sold for an average of 2.5% under list price, with a quarter of sales closing for above list price.

The luxury condo market showed some life. 24 condos sold for above $2M, with the highest-priced sale happening at Penthouse 1-7 in The Pacific (2121 Webster). The unit featured five bedrooms across 5,310 square feet and was originally on the market in early 2022 for $24.5M, eventually closing last month after almost 500 DOM for $17.5M.

We still have a lot of inventory to sell. There are more than 750 condos on the market at a median price of $1.1M. If you’re looking to negotiate and take advantage of areas where there’s way more inventory than buyers, check out these ‘hoods: Dogpatch, Cow Hollow,  Downtown/Financial District;  Hayes Valley; Hunters Point;  Mission, Mission Bay; Nob Hill;  Pacific Heights; Potrero Hill; Russian Hill; South Beach; SoMa/Yerba Buena; Van Ness/Civic Center.

We need to boost the condo absorption rate.  Nothing’s changed on this front. Only 150 units are actually in contract as of this writing, so we have a long way to go before the 750+ units on the market are absorbed. The median list price for these in-contract units is $948,000.

Pro Tips:
Get creative with incentives if you have a condo listing that’s not moving. Pre-paid HOA dues for six months is a good one, and pre-paid leased parking for six months or a year is also a nice motivator for units without parking.

Buyers: Don’t be afraid to write offers for under list price. And don’t waste time with sellers who aren’t willing to negotiate because they paid more than their condo is worth right now.

{All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service]

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