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October 6, 2022

September 2022 Report: San Francisco Condo Market

2121 Webster #108 Living Room

The San Francisco condo market may be soft at the moment, with more sellers than buyers. But two- and three-bedroom units are holding their values. There’s a lot of current inventory, though. There are more than 800 active condo listings out there, and 70% of them have been on the market for 21 days or more—typically the amount of time you should start thinking about reducing the price if you’re a seller.

Volume in September (175 units sold) declined by 16% over August. But it seems like we’re back to pre-pandemic levels in the condo market. For example, 162 condos sold in September 2019, with the spikes happening in 2020 (281 sold) and 2021 (251 sold).

The average condo price of $1,363,896 was a big step up from August’s $1,135,432 average—something I didn’t expect amidst the backdrop of higher loan interest rates.

Here’s what went down last month across the most popular condo categories:

1BRs | 48 sold | $784,545 avge price
Though there were 37% fewer units sold in September than in August, the average price remained roughly the same.

2BRs | 84 sold | $1,508,481
Volume was similar in August and September. But the big story here is that the average two-bedroom price jumped 19% from August’s $1,265,219.

3BRs | 29 sold | $2,042,448
Three bedrooms also saw similar August-September volumes, but the average price increased 15% from $1,763,516 in August.

Condos are generally selling at around their list prices in many parts of the city. Only five units traded for 20% or more over asking, and this handful was for condos in the $1M – $1.2M range. Most condos in the southeastern neighborhoods such as South Beach, Mission Bay, South of Market—as well as downtown—sold for under their list price. The exception was 855 Folsom #917 in Yerba Buena, a 2BR/2BA loft with city views listed for $699,000 and sold for $1,005,000.

September’s luxury market ($2M+) represented a small slice of overall units sold citywide. A total of 24 condos closed in this price range, doubling the number of units sold in August. But 13 of the 24 September sales closed for under the original list price. The most expensive condo sold was at The Pacific (2121 Webster). #108 was a 3BR/4BA, 2,288 square foot unit with a private patio listed for $5,225,000 in May. The sale closed for $4.7M last month. (Photo courtesy Compass)

Pro Tips:
Pay attention to selling patterns and comparable sales over the past three- to six months. Get a realistic sense of value and list your condo around where it should sell, because buyers don’t seem to be overbidding significantly (if at all). I recommend making a deal before 2022 is up, because signs aren’t pointing to a superior market in the Spring.

Buyers: Take a closer look at the 70% of current condo listings that have been on the market for 21 days or more. I mean, that’s most of the inventory. Sellers will hopefully be interested in negotiating as we get closer to the holiday season.

[All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service]

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