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July 30, 2019

Q2 Report: Have San Francisco Sales Hit Their Ceiling?

San Francisco sales soared in the second quarter this year, making us wonder whether we’d see a market correction in the near future. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t another, more sobering view of the numbers.

The median sales price (MSP) of single family homes has bounced back when we look at June over June numbers. Fore example, June 2019 showed a 10.09% increase in MSP over June 2018. Condos followed suit with an increase in MSP of 11.07%. These increases are in line with what we’ve been experiencing for years.

However, a look at the same numbers on a quarterly basis tells you that single-family homes have only experienced a 4.95% increase in MSP from Q2 of 2018 to Q2 of 2019. Condo prices began to flatten even earlier—in 2017—and they only increased 1.21% between Q2 of 2018 to Q2 of 2019.

It appears we are still well within a correction from our previous sales price run up.

Inventory continues to decrease and demand remains high—typical for summer. Since Q2 of 2016, the number of new listings of single family homes has gone down 16.47%. The number of new listings of condos is even more dramatic, down 25% in the last 3 years.

Still, demand for our beautiful city remains high. Pending sales of single family homes are down only 1.45%. Pending sales of condos are actually up 5.99%.

Percent of list price received is another great indicator of demand. For single family homes, the percent of list price received has climbed to 115.1%. All of this would ostensibly put pressure on MSP, but we’ve seen very little increase in prices on a quarterly basis. Perhaps San Francisco has finally found its ceiling, at least for the time being.

Here are a few handy charts for you to brighten your day (click to enlarge):

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