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January 6, 2020

Low Inventory SF Market Will Continue In 2020

High buyer demand and low inventory were the hallmarks of 2019. And it’s a good bet these conditions will fuel another year of high real estate prices, multiple-offer situations and overbidding.

The good news for homeowners is that the average price of a house in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $1,960,000. But it’s worth noting that the average price was roughly the same in Q4 2018. Given that we’ve seen double-digit growth over the past few years, it looks like home prices in San Francisco have hit a long-awaited plateau.

Overbidding for single-family homes showed no signs of slowing down, with buyers paying an average of 7.5% above the list price in Q4 2019. Neighborhood overbid hotspots for single-family homes selling for 20% or more included Mission Terrace, Portola, Bayview, Excelsior, Visitacion Valley, Bernal Heights, Noe Valley (in the under-$2M range), Golden Gate Heights, the Parkside and Sunset.

The condo market was a bit more subdued, with most units selling for at or below asking. The average Q4 overbid was 4.5%; however, condos in the more in-demand neighborhoods such as Noe Valley, Mission Dolores, Pacific Heights and Hayes Valley saw several condos sell for 25% or more.

Cash sales have dropped over the past year, as I recently noted. Only 16% of single-family homes and 14% of condos sold changed hands for cash in Q4.

Our average price per square foot seems to be holding at $1,120 for condos and $1,000 for houses. However, new construction condos are commanding well above that average.

And the prize for the most expensive sale in the last quarter of 2019 goes to Chuck Schwab’s home at 2845 Fillmore in Pacific Heights. The mid-century view residence designed by noted architect Gardner Dailey sits on a double-wide lot and has lovely gardens, multi-car parking and an elevator. Listed for $15M, the final sale price was $14M.

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