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October 12, 2021

Inventory Glut Hits Luxury Condo Market in San Francisco

Buyers looking for a condo in the $2M+ range are in luck: There’s plenty of inventory from which to choose.

The numbers tell the story. There were just under 150 active condo listings from $2M+ as of Friday. On the other hand, only 26 condos in this category are actually in contract, and 56 listings have expired or been cancelled since July.

There’s a bit of a disconnect in pricing when it comes to active vs. pending/sold properties in this $2M+ range. For example, the average list price for the active condos is $3,358,755, with an average price per square foot of $,1600. But the average price for condos in contract is lower at $2,789,154, with a $1,422 price per square foot average. That’s similar to recent closed sale averages (August-October 2021); a total of 72 units have changed hands for an average price of $2.8M, with an $1,445 per square foot average.

What this all means is that there could be some good deals for buyers in this property category—and sellers may need to scale back their expectations, or be very patient that they’ll find the buyer willing and able to pay what they’re looking for.

I surveyed current inventory and came up with my picks worth considering:

4163 26th Street
Noe Valley
4BR/3.5BA, 2,572 sq ft
1 pkg
$2,895,000

4163 26th Street is the upper unit of two newly constructed condos. (I was the listing agent for the house that previously occupied this lot, so I’m familiar with the background.) The lower unit at 4163A 26th is also for sale at $2,395,000, and you can also purchase the whole building for $5,290,000 if you’re looking for a compound of sorts. I liked the upper unit, with its good natural light, top-notch finishes and top level that features media room and office. There is also private elevator access and a rooftop deck with wonderful views of downtown, Twin Peaks and The Bay. (Photo courtesy of Corcoran Global Living and Park North Real Estate)

1501 Greenwich #501
Cow Hollow
3BR/2.5BA, 1,642 sq ft
2 pkg
$2,095,000

I’ve always liked the location and style of 1501 Greenwich. #501 has an open floor plan, lovely city views and a private terrace. The building was constructed in 2008, so the systems are newer and the interior features include vaulted ceilings and ample closet space. Parking is two-car with a stacking system and there’s also exclusive-use storage. This unit last sold in 2017 for $2,150,000. (Photo courtesy of Compass SF)

2459 Jackson
Pacific Heights
3BR/2.5BA, 2,321 sq ft
1 pkg
$2,895,000

This one is for the traditionalists out there—a spacious unit in an Edwardian building with arched windows and box beam ceilings. 2459 Jackson has been nicely remodeled and has city views from multiple rooms. I’m a fan of the master bath and its tiled wall and finishes. Great location just off Fillmore Street. (Photo courtesy of Compass)

3776 20th Street
Dolores Heights
3BR/2BA, 1 pkg
$2,500,000
Thought I’d throw in an off-market property for you. 3776 20th Street is around the corner from Dolores Park and has massive views from the living room and kitchen that include the downtown skyline, Bay Bridge, Transamerica building and City Hall. There is also a massive storage room exclusively for this unit, with a window and extremely high ceilings which is set up for use as a private gym. 1-car assigned independent parking. This property is all about the location and its proximity to the park, 18th Street corridor, Muni, and Mission restaurants/retail. The comp for this one is 629 Dolores, also a 3BR/2BA penthouse-style unit that was situated across the street from Dolores Park and had a private roof deck and two-car parking. Listed for $2,095,000, 629 Dolores closed for $2.7M in an all-cash transaction this past August.

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