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April 21, 2016

Houses Hot, Condos Cold in Q1 2016

The single-family home market went bonkers in the first quarter of the year, but the condo market showed signs of softening.

A look at sales data from the past quarter is a great indicator of how the Spring market will do. Here’s how 2016 is stacking up so far:

Single-Family Homes: Buyers Embrace Overbidding
The average price of a house in the city stood at $1,683,935, up seven percent over Q1 2015. Though the average overbid citywide was 9.6%, a whopping 22% of all houses sold changed hands for 30% or more over their list prices.

This extreme overbidding happened most frequently on homes listed for up to $1,100,000, in neighborhoods like the Outer Parkside, Central Sunset, Ingleside Heights, Sunnyside, and Potrero.

Homes listed for under $2,000,000 often saw extreme overbids in Noe Valley, Glen Park and Potrero.

Fixers were also magnets for overbidders. 209 Clipper in Noe Valley, for example, was a 2BR fixer listed for $1.2M that sold for $1,825,000. And the Dogpatch fixer at 1053 Tennessee priced at $1.1M ended up selling for $1,610,000.

Cash buyers purchased a quarter of the houses that sold in Q1.

Condos: Sales Soften, Longer Days on Market
It cost an average of $1,232,544 for a San Francisco condo over the last quarter, up only slightly from Q1 2015’s average of $1,219,000. I know, hardly grounds for saying that the condo market is in the tank. But things definitely slowed down.

Days on market—the period of time it takes for a property to go into contract from the date it’s listed—increased year-over-year from 32 to 38 days.

The average condo overbid was only 7.5%, and only eight percent of all condos sold for more than 20% over the list price.

My favorite crazytown sales were:
248 17th Avenue / Central Richmond
2BR/1BA ($995,000 / $1,410,500)

2101 Bryant #305 / The Mission
1BR with1125-square feet ($995,000 / $1,400,000)

2151 Laguna / Pacific Heights
3BR unit ($2,995,000 / $4,500,000)

Neighborhoods where extreme condo overbidders roamed weren’t surprising—Noe/Eureka Valleys, Pacific Heights, Hayes Valley, the Mission and NoPa.

Cash buyers represented 20% of the market, which was a bit lower than the 25% I’ve been reporting for more than a year.

Sales flatlined in Mission Bay, South Beach, SoMa and Yerba Buena. Many condos sold at or slightly above their list prices, and included significant new construction sales reported at buildings like 72 Townsend, 252 9th Street and Arden in Mission Bay.

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