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May 31, 2022

House Market Solid Despite Interest Rate Hikes and Stock Slides

Exterior of 1427 44th Avenue

San Francisco house buyers are exuberant as ever, seemingly unaffected by spiking loan interest rates and the declining stock market.

I haven’t seen a softening in single-family home values this Spring, something for buyers to keep in mind as we move into the summer months.

There are currently 243 active house listings in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), with an average list price of $3,544,354. A total of 109 homes have been sitting on the market for 21 days or more. Many are tenant occupied, and 44 of those homes are listed at $3M or more—-two segments of our local market that typically have smaller buyer pools.

However, there are 54 houses listed for up to $2M that have been on the market for 21 days or more. Half a dozen are located in Bernal (in the $1M-$2M range), and there are 10 in Bayview (from $650,000-$1.2M). The rest are scattered in various neighborhoods.

There have been 112 closed sales since May 15th, and the requisite overbidding hasn’t slowed down in that time period. More than half of those sales closed for 20%-63% over asking, and 25 closed for 40% or more over list price. The prize for the highest overbid goes to the buyers of 1427 44th Avenue in the Outer Sunset (see photo above, courtesy of Compass). The house was listed for $1,395,000 and sold for $2,275,000.

There still seems to be a raft of prospective San Francisco single-family home buyers out there who are game to outbid each other and pay top dollar.  It’s likely they pulled their funds out of the stock market in anticipation of buying real estate.

I’m guessing that many sellers and agents will continue listing houses in the $3M and under range for lower than their targeted value. SF buyers need to get a grip on the actual values in their preferred neighborhoods, and not get taken in by teaser prices.

Buyers for higher-end homes may have opportunities to negotiate, as the smaller buyer pool for these properties could translate into slower market activity this summer for sellers.

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