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January 9, 2023

December 2022 Report: San Francisco House Market

15 Castenada Exterior
  • The San Francisco house market went out with a whimper, with the lowest December volume in years. And oh, yeah—the average median price was also down year-over-year. No one expects much from a holiday market, but this one underperformed all around.

Here’s the latest on how the house market did in December:

Median price: The December 2022 median price was $1,573,000, which was down six percent year-over-year.

Volume check: Only 145 houses closed last month. Let’s just say that buyers weren’t out in droves at the end of 2022, accounting for a 30% year-over-year volume drop.

The overbidding calmed down: Only half of all homes sold closed for over the list price, which is a far cry from the 80% that traded hands for more than asking in December 2021. And only eight homes sold for 20% or more over list price. There’s always one that bucks the trend, and it was 411 Clipper. The development opportunity listed for $998,000 sold for $1,625,000 to an LLC. This is actually pretty reasonable for a Noe Valley fixer, given that newly renovated homes in the neighborhood sell for well above $4M.

The luxury market hibernated. There were 18 houses that sold for $3M or more, four of which were paid for in cash. The average days on market (DOM) for homes on this level was 46, but many spent much more time waiting for buyers. The big triumph was the six-bedroom, 5,700-square foot home in Forest Hill at 15 Castenada (photo above courtesy Vanguard Properties) that sold after 177 DOM. Originally listed for $5,490,000 in early June, the house had two price chops before it closed for $3,885,000 in December.

Current mood: Sleepy. There are 168 houses currently on the market at an average list price of $1.7M, and 100 homes in contract. Sellers cancelled almost 100 listings in December, and put 41 on hold; most of these unsold homes will likely return to the market in the first half of 2023. But that may represent the bulk of inventory as homeowners who don’t absolutely have to move stay in place with their lower-interest rate mortgages. But 2023 is just getting started.

Pro Tips
This is a good time to list your house if you want to avoid the competition.

Buyers: Be realistic on price expectations. Make sure you’re up to speed on values for the level of house and location in which you’re looking, based on comparable sales over the past six months.

[All data courtesy of the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service.]

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