The San Francisco condo market made a respectable showing this past summer, with year-over-year volume rising and prices remaining relatively flat. But late summer buyer activity ticked up, making me think that we’re in for an upbeat fall real estate season.
Here’s a look at how we did this summer:
Volume was up. A total of 509 condos were sold between June and August 2025—an 8.7% increase from the 468 units sold in the same period last year. I’m chalking this up to slightly easing mortgage rates and a wave of AI-driven employment growth sparking demand in neighborhoods like the Mission, Hayes Valley, Noe Valley and SoMa.
But prices are flat. Despite the increase in activity, prices haven’t moved much. The average condo price this summer was $1,267,000 compared to last summer’s $1,270,000. And the price per square foot stalled at $1,000.
Legacy owners are not happy. Condo owners who purchased before interest rates began climbing in 2022 continued to face declining values. Prices are generally 10%-20% less in the current market. This has been especially true in high-rise properties downtown.
But downtown may be coming back. Average prices in areas like Mission Bay, SoMa, South Beach, Yerba Buena, the Financial District, and Downtown jumped from $1.09M in summer 2024 to $1.28M this past summer. That’s nearly a 17% increase, and I think we again have AI to thank for some of this activity.
Overbidding for condos was minimal. The average citywide overbid this summer was just 0.49% above list price. However, several condos in established, sought-after neighborhoods like Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Pacific Heights, the Marina, Haight, and Hayes Valley saw big overbids.
Noe Valley saw a late summer surge. Noe Valley two bedrooms along the 24th Street corridor were magnets for quick, high-priced sales which I think will set the tone in the neighborhood for the fall. For example, the modest first-floor unit at 3731 23rd Street listed for $1.2M closed for $1,550,000. (Photo above courtesy Compass.) A few weeks later, another two-bedroom unit on Dolores at 24th Street went on the market for $1.3M and is in contract for well above that price. And the beat goes on.
The luxury market was low key. Only 69 condos sold for $2 million or more, with many of these transactions happening in South Beach and Pacific Heights.
There are more condos on the market (469) than actually in contract (160). But I’m betting that lower interest rates, continued AI growth and optimism around our new mayor will converge to create a busy fall market.