It was a year of mixed results for our local real estate market in 2018. On the one hand, values were solid and most properties didn’t sit on the market for very long. But on the other hand, there were notable signs of a downward shift.
Yes, the average price of a house was just under $2M, and condos averaged $1.3M. But there were fewer offers on properties, which translated into fewer rabid overbidding situations. We seemed to peak in the Spring, and sellers who listed their homes thereafter didn’t necessarily snag the outlier buyer(s) compelled to pay way over asking to get the property.
Most overbids of 20% or more happened on single-family homes in the Outer Parkside/Sunset, Bernal Heights and Portola, but condo buyers hit the overbid button most frequently in Noe/Eureka Valleys, The Haight, Mission, Inner Richmond, Mission Dolores, and Cole Valley.
Here are my thoughts on what I think we’ll see in 2019:
- Continued buyer uncertainty propelled by stock market gyrations, the political climate, and rising interest rates
- Fewer extreme multiple offer situations
- Fewer buyers willing to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars over the list price
- Upcoming IPOs at Lyft, Uber, Pinterest, Airbnb and other unicorns will probably not have an effect on the San Francisco market in 2019. For that to happen, one or more of them would have to go public very early in the year and do extremely well. But there would still be a lock-out period. It’s possible those potential buyers could have time to purchase homes this year, but it would probably be in the fourth quarter at the earliest.
- New construction condos will have limited availability this year, as there will only be 314 units hitting the market (compared with 1,000 in 2018).
As always, I’m on the lookout for new clients to assist in the new year. Give me a shout if you’re planning to buy or sell a home in 2019, you can reach me at 415.823.4656 | ebermingham@zephyrsf.com.